Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Market Update June 26, 2007

Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $98.81, +3bp

Just like any major league baseball player caught in a "squeeze play" between third base and home, Bonds are heading right into a squeeze play of their own.

Just take one look at the Bond Page and you can see it...Bonds are right between a Falling Resistance Line overhead, currently at $98.88 and falling everyday, and a floor of support below at $98.28. You can also see how the Falling Resistance Line has been tested but not yet defeated, so Bonds will need a strong catalyst if they are going to be able to break higher above this ceiling as the squeeze play tightens in the next few trading sessions. With a week full of news - the catalyst could come any day, but the technical squeeze certainly heightens the anticipation for the upcoming Fed Meeting and PCE Report set for release on Thursday and Friday.

New Home Sales for May were reported at 915,000 units, slightly lower than expectations of 925,000 - plus the report brought a downward revision for April's numbers as well. Inventory remained relatively stable at a 7.1 month supply, well off the recent highs of 8.3 months. Although the report was somewhat weak overall, the even inventory pace suggests further stabilization in the Housing market.

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