Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $98.38, -12bp
The June Jobs Report was as we expected, higher than anticipated at 132,000 new jobs being created – and another 75,000 new jobs were added via revisions to April and May. Bonds are moving lower, yet some of the damage was already “cooked in” after yesterday’s ADP report gave hint of a strong Jobs number today.
In other details from the Report, Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.3% for a 12-month gain of 3.9%, and the Unemployment Rate remains at a low 4.5%. Overall, this report indicates a very healthy labor market – which gives the Fed continued reason to be concerned over “wage-based inflation”. This means that as employees are paid more – they have more money to spend on goods and services, which can drive prices of consumer products higher with the added demand. Additionally – employers that have to continually pay higher wages to their employees may have to raise the prices of their own goods and services, just to help retain their profit margins. This very real concern will keep the idea of a Fed rate cut on the back burner for now.
Technically, Bonds have now been pushed all the way back below the Falling Resistance Line, as we were concerned could happen. One positive note is that Bonds did bounce higher after hitting important support at $98.31 and are now being squeezed between the overhead Falling Resistance Line, and this support level just underfoot. It will be interesting to see who wins this battle – the Bulls or the Bears, especially in light of next week’s slim economic news calendar. The biggest report of interest (Retail Sales) does not arrive until Friday, and with no immediate catalyst to help drive Bond prices higher or help them fight back above the Falling Resistance Line – it appears the tone may be negative for Bonds in the near term.
Friday, July 6, 2007
Thursday, July 5, 2007
Market Update July 5, 2007
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $98.66, -25bp
Traders’ ears may have been ringing already after last nights fireworks, but they got another earful this morning as several Bond-unfriendly economic headlines arrived with a bang. Bonds are moving lower, so let’s unpack the details for talking points to use with your clients today.
First, the Bank of England (like our Fed) announced a hike in their benchmark interest rate to 5.75%, their highest rate in six years and .50% above our own Fed Funds Rate of 5.25%. Remember, our own Bonds compete globally for investment dollars seeking the highest rate of return, so higher rates being offered in other countries can pull money out of our Bond market…just like is happening today. In other foreign central bank news, the European Central Bank (ECB) did decide to keep their current benchmark interest rate unchanged for now, but there is speculation the ECB will bump rates higher in September.
Next, the ADP employment report arrived, showing their “private” count of job growth rising by its quickest rate in seven months, with 150,000 new private sector jobs being created during June. Adding an estimated 25,000 for government jobs, this brings their count to 175,000 new jobs created. Tomorrow’s official Jobs Report coming from the Department of Labor has been estimated to arrive at 125,000 new job creations, a good bit below ADP’s count. Although ADP’s number has been notoriously inaccurate in the past, Bond Traders are taking this as a sign that tomorrow’s Report may be stronger than expected, and are selling off in advance of the official release.
Finally, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index came in strong, showing the service sector of the economy expanded rapidly in June. Any reading above 50% indicates more service firms are expanding than contracting, and the read came in at 60.7%, up from May’s number and higher than expected. Positive economic news like this generally drives money into Stocks and out of Bonds – so just one more reason Bonds are trading lower so far today.
Traders’ ears may have been ringing already after last nights fireworks, but they got another earful this morning as several Bond-unfriendly economic headlines arrived with a bang. Bonds are moving lower, so let’s unpack the details for talking points to use with your clients today.
First, the Bank of England (like our Fed) announced a hike in their benchmark interest rate to 5.75%, their highest rate in six years and .50% above our own Fed Funds Rate of 5.25%. Remember, our own Bonds compete globally for investment dollars seeking the highest rate of return, so higher rates being offered in other countries can pull money out of our Bond market…just like is happening today. In other foreign central bank news, the European Central Bank (ECB) did decide to keep their current benchmark interest rate unchanged for now, but there is speculation the ECB will bump rates higher in September.
Next, the ADP employment report arrived, showing their “private” count of job growth rising by its quickest rate in seven months, with 150,000 new private sector jobs being created during June. Adding an estimated 25,000 for government jobs, this brings their count to 175,000 new jobs created. Tomorrow’s official Jobs Report coming from the Department of Labor has been estimated to arrive at 125,000 new job creations, a good bit below ADP’s count. Although ADP’s number has been notoriously inaccurate in the past, Bond Traders are taking this as a sign that tomorrow’s Report may be stronger than expected, and are selling off in advance of the official release.
Finally, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index came in strong, showing the service sector of the economy expanded rapidly in June. Any reading above 50% indicates more service firms are expanding than contracting, and the read came in at 60.7%, up from May’s number and higher than expected. Positive economic news like this generally drives money into Stocks and out of Bonds – so just one more reason Bonds are trading lower so far today.
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Market Update July 3, 2007
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: 99.06, +3bp
Bonds are headed in the right direction – higher, and away from the Falling Resistance Line. But we’re not ready to light up a bottle rocket and celebrate just yet – with some potentially volatile trading days ahead, Bonds still have a ways to go before we’ll consider the move above the tough Falling Resistance Line completely convincing.
There are only two low-level economic reports that arrived today, Factory Orders, which fell by 0.5%, but were better than the decline of 1.2% that analysts had expected. Pending Home Sales – which is a volatile number because it only measures contracts, not closings – fell by 3.5%, underscoring softness in the housing market.
With an early market close for Bonds at 2:00pm ET followed by a full close tomorrow in observance of Independence Day, trading should be light this morning – but that can sometimes lead to volatility.
Bonds are headed in the right direction – higher, and away from the Falling Resistance Line. But we’re not ready to light up a bottle rocket and celebrate just yet – with some potentially volatile trading days ahead, Bonds still have a ways to go before we’ll consider the move above the tough Falling Resistance Line completely convincing.
There are only two low-level economic reports that arrived today, Factory Orders, which fell by 0.5%, but were better than the decline of 1.2% that analysts had expected. Pending Home Sales – which is a volatile number because it only measures contracts, not closings – fell by 3.5%, underscoring softness in the housing market.
With an early market close for Bonds at 2:00pm ET followed by a full close tomorrow in observance of Independence Day, trading should be light this morning – but that can sometimes lead to volatility.
Monday, July 2, 2007
Market Update July 2, 2007
Risks favor: Cautiously Floating
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $98.97, +6bp
On the heels of last week’s full slate of economic events, the schedule this week will be fairly tame by comparison…that is, until Friday’s monthly Jobs Report arrives. The labor market has remained incredibly tight, which is one of the reasons the Fed isn’t anxious to declare that inflation is completely controlled just yet – so the report will be of interest, and as always, could be a market mover.
In the meantime, today brought only the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Index, giving a read on the health of the manufacturing sector. It came in stronger than expected - and actually at the highest level in 14 months. Stocks seem to like the strong news, although Bonds have had little reaction.
The technical picture has been very exciting lately, as Bonds battle out a “squeeze play” between the strong Falling Resistance Line and support just below. For now, Bonds have popped just above the Falling Resistance Line – and while this is good news, we’re not yet convinced that the move is permanent. Although the week ahead lacks a fat economic schedule, the midweek Independence Day holiday can lead to increased volatility due to light trading volume, combined with Trader's nagging fears of terrorist action surrounding our patriotic holidays. For now, we’ll continue to Float, as we watch to see if the Bond can retain its position above the Falling Resistance Line.
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $98.97, +6bp
On the heels of last week’s full slate of economic events, the schedule this week will be fairly tame by comparison…that is, until Friday’s monthly Jobs Report arrives. The labor market has remained incredibly tight, which is one of the reasons the Fed isn’t anxious to declare that inflation is completely controlled just yet – so the report will be of interest, and as always, could be a market mover.
In the meantime, today brought only the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Index, giving a read on the health of the manufacturing sector. It came in stronger than expected - and actually at the highest level in 14 months. Stocks seem to like the strong news, although Bonds have had little reaction.
The technical picture has been very exciting lately, as Bonds battle out a “squeeze play” between the strong Falling Resistance Line and support just below. For now, Bonds have popped just above the Falling Resistance Line – and while this is good news, we’re not yet convinced that the move is permanent. Although the week ahead lacks a fat economic schedule, the midweek Independence Day holiday can lead to increased volatility due to light trading volume, combined with Trader's nagging fears of terrorist action surrounding our patriotic holidays. For now, we’ll continue to Float, as we watch to see if the Bond can retain its position above the Falling Resistance Line.
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