October 2010 : 5 States Account For Half Of The Nation's Foreclosure Activity

According to October data from foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings topped 300,000 for the 20th straight month last month as 1 in every 389 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing.

The generic term "foreclosure filing" is defined to include default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions. Versus the month prior, filings fell 4 percent, and as compared to October 2009, filings were essentially the same.

As usual, foreclosure density varied by region last month, with just 5 states accounting for close to half of the nation's repossessed homes.

• California : 14.8 percent of all bank repossessions
• Florida : 14.4 percent of all bank repossessions
• Michigan : 7.3 percent of all bank repossessions
• Texas : 6.6 percent of all bank repossessions
• Arizona : 6.0 percent of all bank repossessions

The other 45 states accounted for the remaining half.

It reminds us that, like everything else in real estate, foreclosures are local.

For today's Maple Grove home buyers, though, foreclosures represent an interesting opportunity. 

Homes bought in various stages of foreclosure are often less expensive than other, non-foreclosure homes and it's one of the reasons why distressed home sales now represent 35 percent of all home resales.  But don't confuse less expensive for less costly.  Foreclosed homes may also be in various stages of disrepair. Getting them into living condition can be expensive.

Your best real estate "deal", therefore, may be that non-distressed home that's in sound, move-in ready condition.

If you're buying foreclosures -- or even just thinking about it -- make sure you talk with a real estate agent first. Buying distressed property is different from the "typical" home purchase. You'll want somebody experienced in your corner.

Fed Survey : Mortgage Guidelines Tighten Further, Freeze Out Would-Be Refinancers

It's getting tougher to get approved for a mortgage. Still.

In its quarterly survey of senior loan officers around the country, the Federal Reserve asked whether "prime" residential mortgage guidelines" have tightened in the prior 3 months.

A "prime" borrower typically carries a well-documented credit history with high credit scores, has a low debt-to-income ratio, and uses a traditional fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage.

For the period July-September 2010, 52 of 54 responding loan officers admitted to tightening their prime guidelines, or leaving them "basically unchanged".

Just 4% of banks loosened their lending standards.

If you've applied for a home loan lately -- for either purchase or refinance -- you've likely experienced the effects of the last 4 years. Because of delinquencies and defaults, today's mortgage underwriters are forced to scrutinize income, assets and credit scores, among other facets of an home loan application.

Mortgage applicants in Minneapolis have higher hurdles to clear:

• Minimum credit scores are higher versus last year
• Downpayment/equity requirements are larger versus last year
• Debt-to-Income ratios must be lower versus last year

In other words, although mortgage rates are the lowest they've been in history, qualification standards are not.  Minimum eligibility requirements are tougher, and appear to be toughening still.

If you're among the many people wondering if now is the right time to join the Refinance Boom, or to buy a home, consider that, while mortgage rates may fall further, eligibility standards may not.

Low mortgage rates don't matter if you can't qualify for them

Pending Home Sales Slip In September, Suggesting A Buyer's Market Until January

After 3 straight months of improvement, the Pending Home Sales Index slid lower in September. As compared to August, September's reading fell 2 percent.

A "pending home sale" is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The data is drawn from a combination of local real estate associations and national brokers, and represents 20 percent of all purchase transactions in a given month.

Because of the large sample set, and because 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days, the Pending Home Sales Index is a terrific future indicator for the housing market. A high correlation exists between the Pending Home Sales Index and the NAR's monthly Existing Home Sales report issued two months hence.

Expect home sales to idle into the New Year, therefore.

For home buyers in Plymouth , this is good news. Over the last two months, housing markets have overwhelmingly favored home sellers.

Consider than, since June, the volume of both new home sales and existing home sales has increased, causing the available home inventory to fall by months. Meanwhile, helped by low interest rates, demand from buyers has remained relatively stable.

As with everything in economics, falling supply with constant demand leads to higher prices.

Therefore, the Pending Home Sales Index's fading September figures suggest a more balanced supply-and-demand curve in the months ahead, a move that should suppress rising home prices and shift negotiation leverage back to the buy-side. 

So long as mortgage rates remain rock bottom, the autumn season is looking like a terrific time to buy.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 8, 2010

Mortgage markets took a roller coaster ride last week, powered by the dual-force of the Federal Open Market Committee, and the government's monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report.

As standalone events, both releases would have ranked among the top market movers of the year anyway, but throw in the rest of the week's data --including the release of key inflation figures and the midterm elections -- and it's no wonder the bond markets were so bumpy.

Huge gains and losses characterized day-to-day trading last week. Overall, however, conforming mortgage rates in Minnesota improved; fixed-rate mortgage rates fell slightly less than adjustable-rate ones.

Recapping last week's economic news:

• Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, posted a lower-than-expected 1.2% annual growth
• The Federal Reserve announced a $600 billion package to support the economy; more than most estimates.
• According to the government, 151,000 new jobs were created last month. Economists expected 61,000.

Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Index showed strong sector growth.

With each new surprise, Wall Street's expectations adjusted for the future and, therefore, mortgage rates changed. 

This week, the direction that rates take is anyone's guess. First, there's no substantive economic data due for release and, second, markets are closed Thursday for Veteran's Day. The absence of data coupled with lower volume expected overall may mean that market momentum rules the week.

In other words, if mortgage markets open the week better, they may close the week better, too. Conversely, if rates start rising, they could rise by a lot.

If you're still floating a mortgage rate or have yet to call your loan officer about a potential refinance, there's no better time than the present. Mortgage rates are on a 6-month rally and most eligible homeowners stand to save a lot of money.

Make that call this week -- just in case market momentum carries mortgage rates higher.