Unemployment Rate Drops To Lowest In 2 Years

Americans are getting back to work. Sort of.

This morning, at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Non-Farm Payrolls report for January 2011. More commonly called "the jobs report", the government's data showed a large decrease in the number of working Americans as compared to December, but a sizable drop in the Unemployment Rate.

The job growth figures were much lower than consensus estimates:

• Expected job growth in January : +148,000 jobs
• Actual job growth in January : +36,000 jobs

January's Unemployment Rate surprised analysts, too, but not in a bad way, falling from 9.4 percent in December to 9.0 percent last month. This is the nation's lowest Unemployment Rate in nearly 2 years.

Today's jobs report is rough news for home buyers and rate shoppers in Maple Grove. Shortly after the report's release, Wall Street is attributing the low jobs number to "bad weather" and is choosing to focus on the strong Unemployment Rate instead.

U.S. stock futures are now rising ahead of open, an increase that will come at the expense of the bond markets. Indeed, mortgage-backed bonds are losing this morning already.

Conforming mortgage rates are expected to start the day at least +0.125% from Thursday's close and, if momentum continues, could tack on an additional +0.125% before today's closing bell.

The government's report is an excellent example of how important jobs data can be to home affordability -- especially in a recovering economy.

The economy shed 7 million jobs between 2008 and 2009 and fewer than 1 million of those were recovered in 2010. It's a data point Wall Street watches closely because more working Americans means more consumer spending, and more consumer spending means more economic growth. Consumers account for 70% of the U.S. economy, after all.

More workers also means more taxes paid to federal, state and local government, and, in theory, fewer loan charge-offs from banks. These, too, keep the economic engine moving forward, spurring more spending and job growth. 

If you have not yet locked a mortgage rate, consider locking one today. On the heels of today's jobs data, 30-year fixed rates will scratch at their highest levels of the year.

Mortgage Guidelines Starting To Loosen?

Mortgage lending appears to be loosening. At least for now.

In its quarterly survey of member banks, the Federal Reserve asks senior loan officers around the country whether their "prime" residential mortgage guidelines had tightened within the last 3 months.

A prime borrower is one with a well-documented credit history, high credit scores, and a low debt-to-income ratio.

Of the 54 responding banks, just 2 said its guidelines had tightened during the period October-December 2010. That's less than 4 percent. And, by comparison, 95 percent of banks said guidelines remained "basically unchanged".

The remaining banks reported a loosening.

It's a positive sign for the housing market, and for home buyers in Minneapolis and nationwide. If banks have stopped raising the hurdles of home loan approval, in theory, more would-be buyers will be approved.

It's much tougher to get a home loan versus 5 years ago. Delinquencies and defaults have changed how banks review loan applications. Today's underwriters are more conservative with respect to household income, total assets and overall credit scores.

Even as compared to January 2010, approval standards are higher : 

• Minimum credit score requirements are higher
• Downpayment/equity requirements are larger
• Maximum allowable debt-to-income ratios have been lowered

Although mortgage rates remain low, qualification standards do not. Based on last quarter's banking survey, however, mortgage applicants in Minnesota may find approvals easier to come by soon. Low rates don't matter, after all, if you're not eligible to get them.

The housing market is strong and lending looks to be loosening. It should help fuel the demand for homes in 2011, which will push supplies down and lead prices up. For homeowners that qualify, therefore, the best time to purchase a home may be sometime this spring.

Practical Advice : How To Help Your Home Sell Faster

In December, home sales reached an 8-month high, recovering from the losses of last summer. Market momentum is positive across Wisconsin , but that doesn't mean every home is selling quickly -- only some of them are.

So, if you're a home seller and want (or need) to get your home sold quickly, take a listen to this 3-minute interview from NBC's The Today Show. It's loaded with practical sales advice for sellers.

As examples:

• How to price your home relative to comparable homes for sale
• Using home inspections to keep your contract on-track for closing
• How much should be spent on your "home photos" that are shown online

The interview also covers about the 3 key places of a home on which to spend money -- the kitchen, the living area, and the front facade. And for good reason -- they're emotional hooks for buyers that help sell homes.

In any market, selling a home can be a challenge. It can be easier by applying common sense.

Pending Home Sales At The Highest Levels Since April 2010

Another day, another strong report for housing.

The Pending Home Sales Index climbed 2 percent in December, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. A "pending home sale" is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

Pending Home Sales are up for the fifth time in 6 months. The December reading is now its highest since the federal home buyer tax credit's April 2010 contract deadline, and the figure is well north of the Pending Home Sales Index 3-year average.

Coupling this data with December's strong Existing Homes Sales report (+12%) and its strong New Home Sales report (+17%), it's clear that the housing market has past its trough and is in Recovery Mode.

Even consumer confidence is at an 8-month high.

On a regional basis, December's Pending Home Sales Index varied as compared against November. The South region led the way, and the West region lagged.

• Northeast Region: +1.8%
• Midwest Region : +8.0%
• South Region : +11.5%
• West Region : -13.2%

Home buyers would do well to study last month's Pending Home Sales Index. It offers clues of what to expect during the spring buying season. For example, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days.

Therefore, we can look at the December Pending Home Sales Index and project, with a high level of confidence, that home sales will be higher throughout February and March on a units-basis.

Furthermore, because the Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales reports show that housing stock is falling nationwide, spring buyers in Maple Grove will notice find more competition for the available housing stock. As the Supply-and-Demand curve shifts towards sellers, home prices rise.

In other words, there's no rush to buy a home, but as the year progresses, home prices are expected to rise, as are mortgage rates. This one-two combination will impact home affordability negatively. And the higher that mortgage rates go, the worse the damage.

Your home-buying dollar won't go as far in 2011's second half as it will go right now. If you have plans to buy a home in 2011, consider moving up your time-frame.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : January 31, 2011

Mortgage markets improved this week as positive economic data was overshadowed by geopolitical strife. A flight-to-quality drove buy-side activity in mortgage bond markets, which, in turn, helped conforming rates fall across the state of Wisconsin.

Last week marks the first time this year that mortgage rates fell on a week-over-week basis, and considering why rates fell, it points to the fragile nature of the global economy.

By all accounts, last week showed that the U.S. economy is in recovery.

1. Housing data rises to its best levels in 8 months (LA Times)
2. Consumer sentiment hit a 7-month high (NPR)
3. Business investment increased 1.4% in December

Furthermore, the Federal Open Market Committee met last week and said that the economy continues to expand (although the pace is slower-than-optimal).

Normally, positive news like this would drive mortgage rates higher, and during the early part of the week, it did. But then, as political problems in Egypt grew larger, international investors began to shift money from their risky assets into the relative safety of the U.S. bond market.

This includes mortgage-backed bonds, of course. The buyer influx pushed up prices and, because bond yields move opposite price, mortgage rates dropped.

The week ended with rates at their lowest levels of the week.

Next week, though, rates could reverse. There's two developing stories rate shoppers should watch.

The first is related to Egypt. In addition to buying mortgage-backed bonds, investors are gambling that oil prices will rise, too. Egypt is the world's 21st largest oil producer and a disruption of its supply could send gas prices soaring. This circumstance would be inflationary and inflation is the enemy of mortgage bonds.

Crude oil jumped 4.3% Friday afternoon. If that continues, mortgage rates should start rising.

The second is tied to jobs. Last month's jobs data was weaker-than-expected on Wall Street and it sparked a mini-rally in mortgage rates to start the year. Jobs are paramount to economic recovery so if this month's figures are lower than the consensus figure of 150,000, expect mortgage rates in Maple Grove to fall.  If the number is stronger than 150,000, expect mortgage rates to rise.

The jobs report is released Friday at 8:30 AM ET.