Is More Fed-Led Stimulus On Its Way?

The Federal Open Market Committee released its April 2012 meeting minutes this week, revealing a Federal Reserve in the ready in the event additional monetary stimulus is needed.

The Fed Minutes function much like the minutes from a business meeting; or, condominium association meeting, for example. It's a detailed review of the conversations and debates between FOMC members, and is typically published 3 weeks after a Federal Reserve meeting.  

The Fed Minutes is a follow-up statement on the FOMC's more well-known, post-meeting press release. It's also much more lengthy.

Whereas the April 25, 2012 press release totaled 444 words, the Fed Minutes spanned 6,618. 

Those extra words are important, too, because the detail offered within the Fed Minutes lends insight into how our nation's central bank views the U.S. economy, its strengths and weaknesses, and its threats.

From the Fed Minutes, some of the Fed's comments includes :

• On employment : Unemployment may remain elevated through 2014
• On housing : Tight underwriting is "holding down" the housing market
• On rates : The Fed Funds Rate should remain low until late-2014

There was also substantial talk about Europe and its role in the U.S. economy. Notably, U.S. financial institutions have been actively reducing their European exposure to contain damage in the event of a full-blown economic crisis abroad.

This has had the net effect of lowering mortgage rates in Minnesota. Mortgage bonds often benefit from economic uncertainty.

In addition, because several Fed members acknowledged a willingness to add new stimulus to the U.S. economy, mortgage markets are accounting for the possibility it could happen. It's unclear whether stimulus would be added after the Fed's next meeting, or at some point later in the year, or at all.

The FOMC has its next scheduled meeting June 19-20, 2012.

Single-Family Housing Starts Powers Ahead

The new construction housing market continues to improve.

One day after the National Association of Homebuilders reported a 5-year high in homebuilder confidence, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that single-family housing starts rose 2 percent for the second straight month last month.

In April, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, the government reports 492,000 single-family housing starts. A "housing start" is a home on which ground has broken.

In addition, March's single-family housing starts were revised higher. What was previously reported as a three percent loss was re-measured and changed to a 0.2% gain.

The April tally marks a six percent increase over the one-year moving average and, along with the March revision, suggests that the springtime housing market may have just been seasonal. 

In March, a number of reports suggested a housing retreat :

• Existing Home Sales slipped 3%
• New Home Sales slipped 7%
• Homebuilder Confidence fell 4 points

Since then, though, low mortgage rates and affordable home prices appear to have sustained the new construction market, which now appears poised for a strong 2012. 

As one mark of proof, active buyers of newly-built homes in Maple Grove and nationwide are scheduling "model home" showings at the fastest pace since 2007. The burst of foot traffic high has builders upping their sales expectations for the next 6 months.

A scenario like this would normally lead new home prices higher, but the pressure for prices to rise may be offset by the amount of new home supply coming online.

In addition to a rise in Housing Starts, the Census Bureau also reports that, in April, the number of Building Permits for single-family homes rose 2 percent to move to its second-highest level since March 2010 -- the month preceding the end of the 2010 federal Home buyer tax credit.

86 percent of homes break ground within one month of permit issuance.

It's unclear whether housing is on a steady path higher, but there's a growing body of evidence that suggests the market bottom has already passed.

Homebuilder Confidence Moves To 5-Year High

Homebuilder Confidence is on the rise once again.

After a brief dip in April, the National Association of Homebuilders reports that the Housing Market Index rose 5 points in May to 29. The increase marks the sharpest climb in homebuilder confidence on a month-to-month basis in 10 years, and raises the index to a 5-year high.

The Housing Market Index is scored from 1-100. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions in the single-family new home market overall. Readings below 50 indicate poor conditions.

The HMI has not been above 50 since April 2006.

The Housing Market Index itself is a composite reading as opposed to a straight-up homebuilder survey. The published HMI figure is a compilation of the results of three specific questionnaires sent to NAHB members monthly.

The survey questions are basic :

1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

This month, builders are reporting strong improvement across all three surveyed areas. Current home sales are up 5 points; sales expectations for the next six months are up 3 points; and buyer foot traffic is up 5 points to its highest point since 2007.

With mortgage rates low and home prices suppressed, the market for new homes is gaining momentum, a conclusion supported by the New Home Sales report which shows rising sales volume and a shrinking new home inventory nationwide.

The basics of supply-and-demand portend higher new home prices later this year -- a potentially bad development for buyers of new homes in Minnesota and nationwide. With demand for new homes rising, builders may be less likely to make sale price concessions or to offer "upgrade packages" to buyers of new homes.

If you're shopping for new construction in or around Minneapolis , therefore, consider moving up your time frame. Home affordability is high today. It may not be tomorrow.

Home Affordability Getting A Springtime Boost From Greece

Home affordability is receiving a boost from across the Atlantic Ocean this spring.

For the third time in as many years, a weakening Eurozone is pushing May mortgage rates to new lows throughout Minnesota and nationwide.

The story centers in Greece and begins in 2010.

2 years ago, it was uncovered that successive Greece governments had purposefully misreported the nation-state's economic statistics in order to meet European Union standards. The fraudulent data had permitted Greek governments to spend beyond their means while hiding deficits from EU auditors.

The realization that Greece was heavy in debt with little means to repay its creditors resulted in a massive bailout from the IMF and the rest of the Eurozone nations. The terms for Greece said that, in order to receive its €110 billion aid package, Greece would be required to enact strict spending controls.

This is known as "austerity" and the deal was met with outrage by the Greek public. There's been general social unrest ever since and, on May 6 of this year, Greece held a special "early election" to elect all 300 members to its legislature.

No party won majority in the elections.

7 different groups garnered seats in the parliament last week with anti-austerity groups faring well. It's spurred concern that Greece will end its bid for fiscal restraint, and that Greece may choose to leave the 17-nation Eurozone.

The uncertainty surrounding Greece is helping U.S. mortgage rates to make new lows. As concerns mount for the future of Greece -- and the Eurozone, in general -- global investors seek safer markets for their money.

The U.S. mortgage-backed bond market is one such market.

With the implied backing of the U.S. government, mortgage-backed bonds are viewed as nearly risk-less and investors clamor for safety of principal during uncertain times. The boost in demand drives bond prices up and bond yields down, resulting in lower mortgage rates for home buyers and refinancing households of Maple Grove.

So long as Greece struggles to form its government and flirts with a sovereign debt default, mortgage rates should continue to face downward pressure. U.S. rates may not fall week after week, but analysts expect any rise in rates to be muted.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 14, 2012

Mortgage markets worsened slightly last week as positive U.S. economic news overshadowed growing concerns for the Eurozone's future. Political and economic issues continue to weigh on Greece and Spain, and it's still unknown how France's new President will change that nation's fiscal direction. 

Conforming mortgage rates in Minnesota edged higher on the week overall.

Last week was light on economic data, but the figures released suggest an improving U.S. economy.

For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 3.7 million job openings nationwide this past March, marking the highest amount since July 2008. Voluntary separations (i.e. "quit jobs") increased, too -- also at levels not seen since 2008.

Voluntary separations may hint at labor market improvement because employees rarely leave a steady-paying job without the prospect of a new job ahead. Furthermore, the four-week moving average of first-time unemployment claims fell for the first time in a month.

The jobs market is one of two key sectors expected to lead the economy forward this year.

The other is housing and, this week, there will be two key housing reports for Wall Street to review. The first is Tuesday's homebuilder confidence survey from the National Association of Homebuilders. The second is Wednesday's Housing Starts data for April.

Mortgage rates may also be affected by the Tuesday release of the Retail Sales report and Consumer Price Index report; and, by the Federal Reserve's Wednesday release of the FOMC Minutes from its last meeting.

For home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers, mortgage rates remain at all-time lows. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate nationwide is 3.83% for borrowers willing to pay 0.7 discount points and a full set of closing costs -- the lowest rate-and-fee combination in Freddie Mac's recorded history.

However, low mortgage rates may not last much longer -- especially if the Eurozone can reverse course on its ailing economies.

Mortgage rates remain volatile and sensitive to changes in market conditions. If today's mortgage rates fit your budget, consider locking in.