Home Values Within 12.5 Percent Of April 2007 Peak, Nationwide

According the Federal Home Finance Agency's Home Price Index, home values are now off just 12.5 percent from their April 2007 peak nationwide.  This, after a half-percent monthly increase in prices in May, on average.

Given the state of the market since April 2007, the Home Price Index results are a positive for both the housing market and the economy, but we have to remember that May's half-point increase is an average, and not specific to a particular area.

In contrast to "national markets", the real estate markets in which you and I live are decidedly local.  It's a major difference and the distinction renders the Home Price Index somewhat less important. 

After all, the HPI doesn't account for housing activity in individual neighborhoods , nor does it track value across cities like Minneapolis. Instead, it summarizes data in giant chunks of geography.

A quick look at the HPI regional data proves the point. Of the HPI's 9 tracked regions, only one was within one-tenth of one percent of the national, half-point average.  The others varied by as much 1.3 percent.

As a sample:

• Mountain Region : + 1.7 percent
• New England : + 0.2 percent
• South Atlantic : +1.0 percent

And this is on a regional basis. The HPI's applicability to state, city and neighborhood markets is even less appropriate.

Real estate values cannot be captured in a national survey. For home buyers and seller, what matters is the economics of a block, on a street, in a neighborhood.  That type of granularity can't be tracked in a report like the Home Price Index.

The best place to get that data is from a local real estate agent that knows the market well.

Nervous About Mortgage Rates Rising? Lock Thursday -- Ahead Of Friday's Jobs Report

Mortgage rates have been falling since April but that momentum could reverse tomorrow.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the July jobs report at 8:30 A.M. ET Friday. With a stronger-than-expected reading, mortgage rates should rise, harming home affordability in Minnesota. Jobs are a keystone in economic growth and growth is tied to rates.

Earlier this year, job growth went positive and reached as far north as 431,000 jobs created in May. That figure slipped negative last month, however, as the temporary, decennial census workers left the workforce.

Jobs matter to the U.S. economy. Among other concerns, unemployed Americans spend less on everyday goods and services, and are more likely to stop payments on a mortgage. These effects retard the economy, spur foreclosures, and harm home values.

The reverse is also true. More workers means more disposable dollars and, in theory, a stronger economy.

Analysts expect that a net 65,000 jobs were lost in July. Wall Street -- and Main Street -- have a big interest in those results.

Poor jobs data would likely result in a stock market sell-off which would, in turn, boost the value of government-backed mortgage bonds. This is because bonds tend to perform well when the economy is sagging and higher bond prices mean lower mortgage rates.

Strong jobs data, however, would likely push stock markets up and bond markets down. This would cause mortgage rates to rise. The stronger the employment figures, the higher mortgage rates should go.

So, if you're happy with where mortgage rates are today and you're concerned about what the jobs report may do to them tomorrow, consider talking to your loan officer about locking your rate as soon as possible.

Once the jobs report is released, it may be too late.

As The Pending Home Sales Index Falls, Home Buyers See Dollar Signs

The Pending Home Sales Index failed to rebound from a cliff-dive in May, falling by another 3 percent more in June.  The index remains at record-low levels.

A "pending home sale" is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The data is culled from local real estate associations and large brokers and accounts for 20 percent of all purchase transactions in a given month nationwide.

The Pending Home Sales Index is a future indicator for the housing market; there is a high correlation between the PHSI and the monthly Existing Home Sales report.  This is because of the relatively large sample set used for the PHSI, and because 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days, according to the National Association of Realtors.

 

June's Pending Home Sales Index is weak by most measures, but if you're a home buyer in Minneapolis , the headlines aren't so bad. Fewer home sales can push negotiation leverage to the buy-side of a transaction.

Plus, there's other positives in the market for today's buyers:

• Home supplies are up, which creates competition among sellers
• Builder confidence is down, which leads to "free" upgrades and incentives
• Mortgage rates are low, which increases cash flow and disposable income

All things equal, the current home buying conditions haven't been this favorable in years.

The falling figures in June's Pending Home Sales Index hint that home sales will be down through the rest of the summer and into early-Fall. However, mortgage rates may not and higher mortgage rates can do more to change a monthly payment that a small reduction in home price.

If you're planning to buy a home later this year, consider moving up your time frame. 

It's an excellent time to be a buyer.

What Does It Mean To Escrow Taxes And Insurance?

The fiscal responsibility of a homeowner -- in Minneapolis and everywhere else -- extends beyond the mortgage's basic principal and interest repayments. Homeowners are also responsible for the real estate taxes on the home and its insurance premiums, too.

Failure to pay taxes can lead to foreclosure, and failure to insure is breach of your mortgage contract.

As a homeowner, you have a choice about how you manage your real estate tax and insurance bills.  You can choose to pay them from your own bank account when the bills come due, or you can choose to pay 1/12 of the annual bill to your mortgage servicer each month, and then let your servicer pay the bills on your behalf when they come due.

Not surprisingly, servicers prefer the latter method -- it reduces two major lender risks:

1. That the home's real estate taxes go delinquent and are sold to a third-party
2. That the home endures catastrophic damage during a lapse of insurance coverage

In theory, when the servicer is paying the bills, the home's taxes are always current and the home's insurance is always paid. This method of managing taxes and insurance is commonly called "escrowing".

To calculate a home's monthly escrow payment is simple. Just take the sum of the annual real estate tax bills and insurance bill, then divide it by 12 months in the year.

As a example, a $4,000 annual tax bill with a $800 insurance policy = $4,800 annually = $400 paid into escrow monthly. These monies are collected as part of the regular mortgage payment along with the mortgage's scheduled principal + interest payment.

Homeowners choosing to escrow tend to get the lowest rate, lowest fee loans. This is because lenders often charge a premium to "waive escrow" (i.e. pay their own taxes and insurance). Escrow waiver fees vary between banks, but can range up to half-percent of the amount borrowed. The larger the loan, the stiffer the penalty in dollar terms. 

Choosing to waive escrow can also raise your mortgage rate by up to 0.250 percent.

If you're unsure whether escrowing is right for you, talk to your loan officer and/or financial planner. There's good reason to go either route depending on your profile.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 2, 2010

Mortgage markets improved last week, pushing mortgage rates lower for the 6th time in seven weeks. 

Since April, rates in Minnesota have been on a downward path, spurring refinances in most markets and sparking the start of a Refi Boom.

Last week, 3 key stories played a role in falling rates:

1. Demand was strong for U.S. government debt
2. Emerging concerns of a Japan-style deflation in the U.S.
3. Personal Spending since late-2007 was shown to be less than previously thought

Of the three, it's the measured drop in Personal Spending for which rate shoppers and home buyers in Minneapolis should watch. Drops in spending slow down the economy which, in turn, tends to pull mortgage rates lower.

Long-term, deflation could be a drag on rates, too. For now, though, it's just a conversation among academics and economists.

This week, mortgage rates could move up or down -- a lot hinges on the results on July's Non-Farm Payrolls report.

More commonly called "the jobs report", Non-Farm Payrolls hits the wires Friday at 8:30 AM ET. Markets are expecting a 75,000 net loss of jobs last month. If the actual number is higher, mortgage rates should rise. If the actual number is lower, mortgage rates should fall.

With the jobs numbers not due until Friday morning, expect choppy trading through Thursday's market close. There's a handful of economic data set for release including Personal Consumption Expenditures (Tuesday), Pending Home Sales (Tuesday) and Jobless Claims (Thursday). Each has the potential to move mortgage rates.

The Refi Boom is ongoing but when it ends, it will end in a hurry. If you've been thinking about a refinance, contact your loan officer about your options sooner rather than later.