Demand Is Rising, Supplies Are Falling : Home Prices Set To Rise?

Home resales rose 4 percent last month, according to the March Existing Home Sales report. A total of 5.1 million homes were sold on an annualized, seasonally-adjusted basis.

The strong results re-establish the national, long-term trend toward rising home resales.

March marked the 6th month out of eight in which sales volume has increased and sales are up 32 percent from July 2010 lows.

Home supply has resumed its downward trajectory, too.

At the current pace of sales, the entire home resale inventory would be depleted in 8.4 months. This is 0.1 months faster as compared to February, and a full month faster than the 12-month average.

The Existing Home Sales report also included a breakdown by buyer-type.

• First-time buyers bought 33% of homes, down from 34% in February
• Repeat buyers bought 45% of homes, down from 47% in February
• Investors bought 22% of homes, up from 19% in February

35 percent of buyers paid in cash.

And, perhaps most noteworthy, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, 40 percent of March home resales were "distressed properties". Distressed homes include foreclosures, short sales, and REO and typically sell at discounts "in the vicinity" of 20 percent.

Home prices in Maple Grove are based on the basic economic theory of Supply and Demand. So, with home supplies dropping and demand for homes rising, it's reasonable to expect home values to rise later this year.

If you're in the market for a home, play the recent trends to your advantage. Today, homes are affordable and mortgage rates are low. This may not be the case later this year. The best "deals" of the year may be what you buy now.

Building Permits Rise In All 4 Regions

According to the Census Bureau, seasonally-adjusted, single-family Housing Starts rebounded in March, increasing 8 percent over February's 2-year low.

We can't put too much faith in the data, however, because for the second straight month, the government reports that the data's margin of error -- 15 percent -- exceeds its actual measurement.

As written in the footnotes, there's no "statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change [in Housing Starts] is different from zero."

In other words, single-family Housing Starts may have dropped up to 7 percent last month, or may have increased by as much as 22 percent. We won't know for certain until several months from now. As the Census Bureau gathers more data, it will revise its initial monthly findings.

Such adjustments are common. February's starts were revised higher by 4.5%, for example.

Also included in the Census Bureau's report is the March 2011 Building Permits tally. As compared to February, permits were higher by 6 percent nationwide. This is a noteworthy development because permits-issued is an excellent forward-predictor for housing.

When permits are issued, 86 percent of them will start construction within 60 days. This means that new home sales and housing stock should follow the Building Permits report trend, but on a 2-month delay.

Permits were strong in all 4 regions last month:

• Northeast : +2.6 percent from February
• Midwest : +10.0 percent from February
• South : +5.3 percent from February
• West : +5.3 percent from February

With Building Permits rising, we can infer that the housing market is improving.

Therefore, if you're currently looking for new construction, consider that the market may be less favorable for buyers 4-6 months from now than it is today. Especially because homebuilders are already projecting higher sales volume.

The better time to buy new construction -- relative -- may be now.

As Buyer Traffic Grows, Homebuilder Confidence Slips

Homebuilder confidence is falling -- a good sign for buyers of newly-built homes.

According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the Housing Market Index slipped one point to 16 in April. It's the 5th time in 6 months that the index read 16 -- a figure exactly in line with the 1-year average, but still considered "poor". The Housing Market Index reports on a scale of 1-100.

Values of 50 or better representing "favorable conditions". Values below 50 are considered "unfavorable".

It's been 5 years since the Housing Market Index read north of 50.

As an index, the HMI is actually a composite of three separate surveys, the results of which can be as telling as the final, compiled results. The surveys focus on specific aspects about a homebuilder's business, and use the broader responses to gauge overall market "sentiment".

The 3 questions are: 

1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

In April, interestingly, home builders felt market conditions were worse across the board, but still cited higher buyer foot traffic. This may be the result of a combination of rising mortgage rates and falling home values. Both tend to be bad for builders, and both tend to spur home buyers into action.

As a home buyer this spring, therefore, use the HMI data to your advantage. When home builders feel less confident on housing, buyers can often exact better concessions and/or upgrades during the negotiation process.

And, so long as mortgage rates continue to rise, that pressure on builders should build.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : April 18, 2011

Mortgage markets improved last week, buoyed by two days of out-sized gains. Mortgage rates bounced off their 8-week highs on much weaker-than-expected inflation data, and debt concerns abroad.

It's an abrupt change in mortgage rate momentum.

Since the Federal Reserve's March 2011 meeting, in which the Fed said rising energy costs are "putting upward pressure on inflation", inflation chatter has figured big for Plymouth  mortgage rates. With each tick higher in gas prices; in every conversation on U.S. debt load; as fruits and vegetables get more expensive at the supermarket, Wall Street's fears of inflation have grown, and rate shoppers have suffered.

The connection between inflation and mortgage rates is straight-forward. Inflation is the devaluation of the U.S. dollar -- the currency in which mortgage bonds are denominated. As the dollar loses values, so do mortgage bonds, therefore, leading mortgage rates to rise, inevitably.

Leading up to last week, concerns peaked and rates did, too. And then, a strange thing happened. The government's March inflation report showed inflation well under control.

The results surprised Wall Street and the trades that had previously served to pump rate up, last week, ran in reverse.

The biggest gains were made Friday.

This week, inflation takes back-seat to housing data. There's a lot of it coming.

• Monday : Homebuilder Confidence Index
• Tuesday : Housing Starts and Building Permits
• Wednesday : Existing Home Sales
• Thursday : Housing Market Index

There's no data due Friday with markets closed for Good Friday.

This is a holiday-shortened week so expect low trading volume to render rates more erratic than typical. If you're not yet locked in to a mortgage rate with your lender, consider doing it this week.