Friday, October 22, 2010

Time To Refinance? Mortgage Rates Down 1.00 Percent Since April.

Freddie Mac mortgage rates (January - October 2010)

30-year fixed mortgage rates rose last week, marking the first time in a month that rates failed to fall week-to-week.

The data sources from Freddie Mac, one of the government's major mortgage securitizers and a sister entity to Fannie Mae. Each week, Freddie Mac collects mortgage rate data from more than 120 lenders nationwide and publishes the results in a report called the Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

According to this week's PMMS, the 30-year fixed rate rose 0.02% and now averages 4.21% nationally. The average accompanying cost is 0.8 points.

1 point is equal to 1 percent of the loan size.

Note, though, that these are just averages. Just as real estate markets are local, mortgage rates can be, too. As an illustration, look how this week's rates break down by region:

  • Northeast : 4.22 with 0.8 points
  • Southeast : 4.30 with 0.8 points
  • N. Central : 4.19 with 0.8 points
  • Southeast : 4.23 with 0.7 points
  • West : 4.17 with 1.0 points

The rate-and-fee combination you'd get in your home state of Minnesota , in other words, is different from the rate-and-fee combination you'd get if you lived somewhere else. In the West, rates are low and fees are high; in the Southeast, it's the opposite.

The good news is that, as a rate shopper, you can have it whichever way you prefer. If getting the absolute lowest mortgage rate is worth the extra cost to you, have your loan officer structure to structure your loan as such. Or, if you prefer higher rates and lower costs, you can go that route, too.

Banks offer multiple mortgage set-ups to meet every type of budget and, with rates down 1.00% since April 8, there's good cause to call your loan officer about a mortgage refinance. See what set-up will work best for you.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

See How Credit Missteps Lower Your Credit Score

The FICO Recipe

The company behind the popular FICO scoring model has published a "What If?" series for common, specific credit missteps.

If you've ever wondered how your credit score would be affected by a missed payment or a maxed-out credit card, now you can use a look-up guide to assess the probable damage.

As published by myFICO.com, here's a few common financial difficulties and how they affect FICO scores.

Max-Out A Credit Card

  • Starting score of 780 : 25-45 point drop
  • Starting score of 680 : 10-30 point drop

30-Day Delinquency

  • Starting score of 780 : 90-110 point drop
  • Starting score of 680 : 60-80 point drop

Foreclosure

  • Starting score of 780 : 140-160 point drop
  • Starting score of 680 : 85-105 point drop

Not surprisingly, the higher your starting score, the more each given difficulty can drop your FICO.  This is because credit scores are meant to predict the likelihood of a loan default. People with lower FICOs are already reflecting the effects of risky credit behavior.

Also worth noting that the above is just a guide -- your scores may fall by more -- or less -- depending on your individuak credit profile.  The number and type of credit accounts you hold, plus their respective payments and balances make up your complete credit history.

Read the complete report at myFICO.com.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Housing Starts Jump In September, Buoyed By Homebuilder Confidence

Housing starts Oct 2008-Sept 2010According to the Commerce Department, the number of single-family Housing Starts increased to 452,000 units in September, a 19,000 improvement over August.

A "housing start" is a new home on which construction has started.

Housing Starts data is surveyed and broken-down by housing type:

  1. Single-Family Housing Starts
  2. Multi-Unit Housing Starts (2-4 Units)
  3. Apartment Building Housing Starts (5 or more units)

The government logs each type separately, but also lumps them into a single, comprehensive figure within its reports. For this reason, headlines surrounding the story seem contradictory.

For example:

  • Marketwatch : Housing starts rise for 3rd straight month, up 0.3%
  • CNN : Housing starts jump to 5-month high

It's single-family homes that most Americans purchase, though, and that's why single-family starts are the numbers worth watching. As 75% of the market, it's more relevant than the joint numbers most commonly reported by the press.

In September, single-family starts did move to a 5-month high but buyers and sellers in Minneapolis should keep the figures in perspective. Just because starts are rising doesn't mean the housing sector has turned around for good.

The first reason why is because, in September, starts were 75 percent less as compared to 5 years ago at the peak of housing. And if you feel that's an unfair comparison, even as compared to the last 12 months, September's data was tens of thousands below average.

Second, September's Margin of Error happened to exceed its actual measurement. This means that the 4 percent in starts may actually turn out to be a loss of 4 percent (or more!) once the data is collected in full.

If there's a reason to think the New Homes market is coming back, though, it's that home builder confidence is also at a 5-month high. Foot traffic is rising and builders are optimistic about the next six months.  This could mean higher sales prices and less chance for negotiation.

Buyers in search of new homes may find it tougher to make a deal the closer we get to 2011.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

As Buyer Foot Traffic Rises, So Does Homebuilder Confidence

NAHB Housing Market Index October 2008-2010

As the "pulse of the single-family housing market", the Housing Market Index is a monthly product of the National Association of Homebuilders. Its scores range from 1-100, with a reading a 50 or better suggesting "favorable conditions" for builders.

Because of its methodology, the Housing Market Index can offer excellent insight into the Maple Grove market for newly-built homes. This is because its value is a composite of three survey questions:

  1. How are market conditions today?
  2. How do market conditions look 6 months from now?
  3. How is the prospective traffic of new buyers for new homes?

Builder responses are collected, weighted, then presented as the Housing Market Index.

According to the NAHB, October's HMI reading of 16 is its highest value in 5 months. The uptick hints that the market for newly-built homes may rebound more quickly that this summer's weak new homes sales figures would otherwise suggest.

You'll remember that, between April and August, the number of new homes sold per month fell by 30 percent and the available, new home inventory climbed 2.3 months.

This month, though, builders report much better foot traffic and, as a result, have raised their expectations for the next six months of sales. Low mortgage rates are likely aiding the optimism, too.

As compared to 1 year ago, average, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are lower by 0.75 percent, a payment savings of $45 per $100,000 borrowed.

Monday, October 18, 2010

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 18, 2010

Housing starts and building permitsMortgage markets worsened last week in back-and-forth trading, pushing conforming mortgage rates higher on the week.

Despite the uptick, however, Freddie Mac reports that rates in Minnesota still managed to make new, all-time lows for the third week in a row. The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now down 1.02% since April 2010.

The United States is experiencing a Refi Boom.

As compared to 6 months ago, a new, $200,000 home loan costs $124 less per month in principal + interest.

This week, monthly payments may fall some more. It all depends on data.

Early in the week, housing data takes center stage. The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index this morning, and, Tuesday, the government prints September's Housing Starts figures.  Both reports figure to influence the bond market.

Strong readings should lead mortgage rates higher; weak ones should lead them lower. Economists expect weakness.

That said, the biggest story of the week -- and the one with the best chance of changing rates -- could stem from the Federal Reserve.

Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Ben Bernanke, have observed the recent U.S. economy and have openly discussed the use of "non-conventional means" to spur it forward. As the rhetoric increases, it's widely believed that the Fed will act soon, and that the central bank's plan will include new commitments to U.S. Treasury debt, and, possibly, to mortgage-backed bonds.

Speculation of the Fed's next move has sparked mortgage bond demand which, in turn, has helped drive down mortgage rates. An official Fed announcement could push rates lower still.

For now, though, mortgage rates are as low as they've been in history. Rate shoppers have two choices. (1) Lock in a today's low rates, or (2) Wait and hope that rates fall further. Ultimately, rates may fall, but once they start rising, they'll likely rise quickly.

It's a gamble you may not wish to take.