Monday, June 18, 2007

Market Update - June 18, 2007

Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $98.59, -9bp

Mortgage Bonds are trading slightly lower, but off of the best levels of the day.

At 1:00pm ET, the National Association of Home Builders will release the Housing Market Index for June. The report measures housing market conditions by surveying buyer traffic through model homes, expectations for sales during the next six months, and builders’ sentiment on current sales. Lately, builder sentiment has trended lower and weakened with readings of 36 in March, 33 in April, and 30 in May. A reading below 50 indicates more builders view conditions as poor rather than good. Should this report come in a little weak, Mortgage Bonds may benefit. Tomorrow, a further view on the health of the Housing Sector takes place with the release of the Housing Starts and Building Permits report for May.

After bouncing 100 basis points higher since last Wednesday, Mortgage Bonds appear to be taking a breather. We want to be patient and see if Mortgage Bonds can shrug off the early morning losses, but if prices are unable to recover you might be hearing from us later today as we are seeing the early makings of a Bearish Dark Cloud Cover Pattern.

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