December's Job Report : Good For Home Affordability

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report.

More commonly called "the jobs report", the government's data include raw employment figures and the Unemployment Rate.

The jobs report hit the wires at 8:30 AM ET today. It's making big waves in the mortgage market and may help home affordability for buyers in Minneapolis this weekend, and would-be refinancers across Minnesota.

For this month, and for the rest of 2011, employment data will figure big in mortgage markets.

7 million jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009. Fewer than one million jobs were recovered in 2010. For the economy to fully recover, analysts believe that jobs growth is paramount.

Consider how job creation influences the economy:

1. More jobs means more income and more spending
2. More spending means more business growth
3. More business growth means more job creation

It's a self-reinforcing cycle and, as business grows, the economy expands, pushing stock markets higher. This tends to lead mortgage rates higher, too, because bonds can lose their appeal when stock markets gain.

According to the government, 103,000 jobs were created in December, and October's and November's figures were revised higher by a net 50,000 jobs for a total of 153,000 new jobs created. Economists expected a net gain of 135,000.

The Unemployment rate fell to 9.4, its lowest level since mid-2009.

Wall Street is voting with its dollars right now. Mortgage bonds are improving, pointing to slightly lower mortgage rates today.

The December jobs report was "average", and home affordability is improving.

Loan Costs Increasing April 1, 2011

Starting April 1, 2011, loan-level pricing adjustments are increasing. Most conforming mortgage applicants will face higher loan costs.

Loan-level pricing adjustments are mandatory closing costs. They're assigned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and based on a loan's specific risk to Wall Street investors.

First constructed in April 2009, loan-level pricing adjustment are a means to help Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac compensate for "riskier loans" by bolstering their respective balance sheets.

Since the initial roll-out, Fannie and Freddie have amended adjustments five times. The pending April adjustment will be the 6th revision in two years.

No class of conforming borrower is exempt from LLPAs. Each loan delivered to Fannie Mae is subject to a quarter-percent "Adverse Market Delivery Charge". That cost is often absorbed by the lender.

The remaining adjustments are grouped by category:

1. Credit Score : Lower FICO scores carry bigger adjustments
2. Property Type : Multi-unit homes carry bigger adjustments
3. Occupancy : Investment properties carry bigger adjustments
4. Structure : Loans with subordinate financing may carry bigger adjustments
5. Equity : Loans will less than 25% equity carry bigger adjustments

LLPAs are cumulative. A borrower that triggers 4 different categories of risk must pay the costs associated with all four traits.

Loan-level pricing adjustments can be expensive -- as much as 3 percent of your loan size in dollar terms.  As an applicant, you can opt to pay these costs as a one-time cash payment at closing, or you can to pay them over time in the form of a higher mortgage rate. 

The loan-level pricing adjustment schedule is public. You can research your personal scenario at the Fannie Mae website. However, you may find the charts confusing. Especially with respect to which route makes the most sense for you -- paying the adjustments as cash, or paying them "in your mortgage rate".

Phone or email your loan officer for help.

The Fed Minutes Keep Mortgage Rates On Hold (For Now)

The Federal Reserve released its December 14 meeting minutes Tuesday afternoon. There wasn't much there to disturb mortgage markets, thankfully.

The "Fed Minutes" is an official recap of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. It's published 8 times annually, 3 weeks after the FOMC adjourns.

The Fed Minutes is similar to the meeting minutes released after a corporate conference or condo association gathering in that they provide additional details about the conversation and debate that occurred between meeting attendees.

The Fed Minutes are a lengthy companion to the Federal Reserve's brief, more well-known, post-meeting press release. But, whereas the press release is measured in paragraphs, the minutes are measured in pages.

Here is some of what the Fed discussed last month:

• On inflation : Core inflation levels "trend lower"; disinflation risks are low.
• On housing : The market is still "quite depressed"; demand is "very weak".
• On stimulus : The Fed will stick to its $600 billion support plan

In response, conforming mortgage rates in Minnesota are unchanged today.

The no-change in rates is welcome news for this month's home buyers and other people wanting to get a jump on the "Spring Buying Season". Mortgage rates have been trending higher since November, erasing 7 months of gains in 7 weeks, and rapidly approaching the psychologically-important 5 percent figure.

Currently, Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as 4.86%.

As compared to November, mortgage rates are higher. As compared to history, however, mortgage rates remain low. If you are still floating a rate, or have otherwise not locked, your opportunity may be ending. Once the economy moves to higher gear, mortgage rates will be among the first of the casualties.

Pending Home Sales Rises To 6-Month High

The housing market continues to expand, and surprise.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, November's Pending Home Sales Index gained 3 percent from October. A "pending home sale" is a home under contract but not yet closed. 

The index is now at its highest point since April 2010's federal tax credit contract expiration deadline.

If the tax credit really did "borrow" sales from the summer months, as has been theorized, housing has rebuilt its foundation. 

We know this because, of all the housing data available to Plymouth  homeowners and home buyers, the Pending Home Sales Index stands apart as a forward-looking report -- its designed purpose as described in its methodology.

Because 80% of all homes under contract close within 60 days, and a statistically significant share of the rest close within months 3 and 4, the Pending Home Sales Index is an excellent predictor of future Existing Home Sales data.

This is in contrast to the New Home Sales data and Case-Shiller Index, as examples, which both describe the real estate market as it existed two months in the past. The Pending Home Sales Index reports on housing as it exists right now. We should expect January's Existing Home Sales report, therefore, to show marked strength, consistent with a housing market recovery.

The downside of the Pending Home Sales Index is that it's a national report and real estate is not sold nationally -- it's sold locally. To get a feel for your home market and how it's faring, talk to a licensed real estate agent with access to local home sale data. 

If pending sales data is available, so much the better. Forward-looking figures can be more helpful than data that's already old.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : January 3, 2011

Mortgage markets improved last week during a snow- and holiday-thinned series of sessions on Wall Street. Mortgage bonds improved on year-end profit-taking, mostly, leading conforming mortgage rates in Wisconsin lower.

Last week marked the first calendar week in which mortgage rates dropped since early-November, a pleasing development for rate shoppers and home buyers. Falling rates means lower monthly mortgage payments.

But don't expect for rates to improve again this week, however. Last week's gains were the result of extremely low trading volume and a close-out of 2010 mortgage bond positions. With markets re-opened for 2011, and Wall Street back at full volume, mortgage rates may resume rising.

There will be a lot of data and information on which for mortgage bonds to trade, too.

The week starts with a growth report from the U.S. manufacturing sector. The Institute for Supply Management's monthly report has shown improvement over 16 straight months, and Monday's report is expected to show the same. Because manufacturing is key in U.S. economy, a stronger-than-expected value could send stock markets higher, and mortgage rates, too.

Then, Tuesday, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its December meeting. There won't be policy changes transcribed in the minutes, but Wall Street will scrutinize its pages for clues on the economy. A bullish bias from the Fed will push rates higher. A bearish bias will drag rates lower.

And lastly, Friday, the government will release its Non-Farm Payrolls report for December. This is a major market-mover because of how closely jobs are tied to the economy overall. Plus, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks Friday -- another risk to mortgage rates.

The gravity of this week's economic releases and speeches should make shopping for a mortgage difficult. Stay in close touch with your loan officer about mortgage rates and how they're moving. And if you see a rate you like, lock it.

There's no promise rates will ever go lower.

Why You Shouldn't Put Too Much Faith In October's Case-Shiller Index

The Case-Shiller Index posted awful numbers in its most recent reading. Each of the index's 20 tracked markets showed home price deterioration between September's and October's respective report. Some markets fell as much as 2.9 percent.

The drop in values is nothing about which to panic, however. The Case-Shiller Index is just re-reporting what we already knew. It's a common theme with the Case-Shiller Index, actually; a trait traced to the report's methodology.

The Case-Shiller Index is an imperfect housing indicator with 3 inherent flaws.

The first flaw is that the index makes use of a limited data set, tracking values in just 20 cities nationwide. That data set is then projected across the more than 3,100 other municipalities in the United States. The "national figures", therefore, aren't really national.

The second flaw is that, even within the tracked 20 cities, not all home sales are included. The Case-Shiller Index only tracks sales of single-family, detached homes, and within that market subset, it only uses homes that are "repeat sales". This specifically excludes sales of condominiums and multi-family homes, and new construction.

Lastly, Case-Shiller Index's third flaw is its "age". The Case-Shiller Index reports on a 60-day delay, and the values it reports are tied to contracts written even longer ago.  Sales contracts from July and August are responsible for October's closings so when we see the Case-Shiller Index as reported in December, some of the data it's reporting is 5 months old already. That's too old to be relevant.

Looking back at 2010, housing was at its weakest between May and August. Therefore, it's no surprise that the most recent Case-Shiller Index shows significant weakness.  Looking forward, we should expect the report to improve -- especially because of how strong New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales have been since summer.

The Case-Shiller Index is helpful for economists and policy-makers. It's not much good for individual homeowners, however. For accurate, real-time housing data, talk to a real estate professional instead.

Housing And Mortgage Predictions For 2011

With 2010 coming to a close, the "experts" are out in full force, making predictions for next year's housing and mortgage markets on business television and in the papers.

Predictions for 2011 are wide-ranging:

• Some say home prices will rise in 2011
• Some say home prices will fall in 2011
• Some say mortgage rates will rise in 2011
• Some say mortgage rates will fall in 2011

The problem with housing and mortgage predictions is that -- like all predictions -- they're just educated guesses about the future. Nobody knows what will really happen with the housing and mortgage markets in 2011. All anyone can do is theorize. As laypersons, though, it can be hard to separate theory from fact.

Television can make that task even more difficult at times.

As an example, when a well-dressed economist goes on CNBC and presents a clear, succinct argument for why home prices will fall on 2011, we're inclined to believe the analysis and conclusion. After all, the outcome seems plausible outcome given the facts. But then, immediately after, a different economist presents an opposite argument -- that home prices will rise in 2011 -- and her analysis seems sound, too.

Even Freddie Mac can't see the future.

Last year, the government group predicted mortgage rates to 6 percent in 2010. That never happened, of course. Instead, conforming mortgage rates dropped over a 7-month period this year to levels best be described as "historic".  Freddie Mac couldn't have been more wrong.

So, what's a Minneapolis homeowner to believe?

About the only thing that's certain right now is that mortgage rates remain low by historical standards, and that home prices do, too. Also, that both housing and mortgage markets appear to be riding momentum higher into 2011.  This suggests that it will be more expensive to buy and finance a home by the end of 2011.

Until that time, however, predictions are just guesses.