Markets Ignore The April Jobs Report And It's Good News For Mortgage Rates

On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

More commonly called "the jobs report", Non-Farm Payrolls is a major market mover. The number of working Americans is directly tied to the health of the economy which, in turn, drives the stock and bond markets.

In general, when jobs numbers improve, it's good for stocks and bad for mortgage bonds. It follows, therefore, that conforming mortgage rates in Minnesota rise because rates always move opposite of mortgage bond prices.

Conversely, when jobs numbers worsen, it tends to be bad for stocks and good for mortgage bonds.  Mortgage rates fall.

Today, markets are behaving a bit differently.

Despite 290,000 jobs created in April 2010 -- nearly twice the expected amount -- and a 40 percent upward revision of March's numbers, mortgage rates are essentially unchanged. 

In a normal environment, rates would be higher.  Today is not normal.

Today is a departure because, for all of the jobs report's import to Wall Street, it's less important to markets than what's happening in Greece right now.

Greece is struggling to meet its debt obligations and its citizens are rioting.

Until a debt solution for Greece is made that sticks, unrest in the region will drive safe haven buying both domestically and abroad. U.S. mortgage bonds will gain on that movement because mortgage bonds are "safe", and mortgage rates will fall.

Indeed, this is exactly what's been happening since the start of April. Mortgage markets have been rallying for 5 weeks.

So, today's jobs news is terrific for the economy and mortgage rates should be rising because of it.  But, they're not. Consider taking advantage -- lock in a rate.

1 In 8 Banks Tightened Prime Mortgage Standards Last Quarter

The Federal Reserve says that financial markets "remain supportive of economic growth". Residential mortgage guidelines, however, continue to tighten.

If you've applied for a home loan recently, you probably felt it; extra scrutiny on income, assets and credit scores, among other things.  The hard proof of the changes, however, can be found in the Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of its member banks.

Every 3 months, the Federal Reserve asks senior bank loan officers around the country whether their respective banks' "prime" residential mortgage guidelines tightened since the last survey.

For the period January-March 2010, 1 in 8 banks surveyed toughened their qualification standards. 

Only 4% loosened them.

When we account for the Fed's survey in conjunction with new underwriting standards from Fannie Mae and FHA, it's clear that getting approved for a mortgage in 2010 is more difficult than at any time in recent memory.

Today's homeowners and home buyers in Plymouth have taller hurdles to leap:

• Minimum FICO scores are higher
• Downpayment/equity requirements are larger
• Debt-to-Income thresholds are smaller

In other words, mortgage rates may stay low throughout 2010, but that won't matter to homeowners failing to meet the new, minimum eligibility standards as set forth by the lenders.

If you're among the many people wondering if now is the right time to buy or refinance a home, remember that -- along with a probable increase in mortgage rates -- mortgage approvals are getting more scarce.

The best home price or mortgage rate in the world won't matter if you're ineligible for financing.

March Pending Home Sales Point To Stronger Spring Market

The Pending Home Sales Index moved higher in March as home sales were spurred by low mortgage rates and an expiring tax credit.

A "pending home" is a property that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

March marks the second straight month in which the Pending Home Sales Index improved after a series of weak showings this past winter.

March showed a 5 percent increase over the month, but the Pending Home Sales Index is still off its October 2009's peak.  October 2009 is a comparable period to March 2010 in that it marked the 1-month deadline before the home buyer tax credit's initial expiration date. The credit was later extended to April 2010, of course.

That said, March's surge in sales is being felt on the street.

Home buyers in Plymouth no doubt noticed the change in activity. Around the country, anecdotally, multiple offer situations were more common last month and "right-priced" homes tended to go under contract quickly.

The increase in March's Pending Home Sales is diminishing the nation's home supply which, in turn, should cause prices to rise in most markets.

Today's buyers should consider making an offer sooner rather than later.  Looking at the data, it appears the best time to have found a "deal" on a home may have been in February.

Fannie Mae Tightens Guidelines On ARMs And Interest Only Products

For the first time this year, Fannie Mae announced significant updates to its mortgage underwriting guidelines.

The changes include newer, harsher ARM qualification standards, the elimination of a once-popular loan product, and tighter rules for interest only mortgages. 

Fannie Mae made its official announcement April 30, 2010.  The changes will roll out to home buyers and homeowners in Maple Grove and everywhere else over the next 12 weeks.

The first guideline change is tied to ARMs of 5 years or less. 

Mortgage applicants must now qualify based on a mortgage rate 2% higher than their note rate.  For example, if your mortgage rate is 5 percent, for qualification purposes, your rate would be 7 percent.

The elevated qualification payment will disqualify borrowers whose debt-to-income levels are borderline.

The second change is Fannie Mae's elimination of the standard 7-year balloon mortgage.  Balloon mortgages were popular early last decade.  Lately, few borrowers have chosen them, though.  Mostly because rates have been relative high as compared to a comparable 7-year ARM.

And, lastly, Fannie Mae is changing its interest only mortgages guidelines.

Effective June 19, 2010, Fannie Mae interest only mortgages must meet the following criteria:

1. The home must be a 1-unit property
2. The home must be a primary residence, or vacation home
3. The borrower's FICO must be 720 or higher
4. The mortgage must be a purchase, or rate-and-term refinance. No "cash out" allowed.

Furthermore, borrowers using interest only mortgages must show two full years of mortgage payments "in the bank" at the time of closing.

Earlier this year, Fannie Mae-sister Freddie Mac announced that as of September 2010, it will stop offering interest only loans altogether.

Between Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA, and other government-supported entities, the U.S. government now backs 96.5% of the U.S. mortgage market.  So long as mortgage default rates are high, expect approvals for all borrower types to continue to toughen.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 3, 2010

Mortgage markets improved last week on tame inflation data, a benign statement from the Federal Reserve, and ongoing credit problems in Greece.

The factors combined to drop conforming mortgage rates in Plymouth to their lowest levels in 6 weeks.

It's an unexpected development considering that mortgage rates were supposed to rise post March 31, 2010.  That was the day the Fed's support for mortgage markets ended.

Since then, however, a month-long string of devastating economic and meteorological events within the Eurozone sparked a global flight-to-quality that benefited "safe" assets such as mortgage bonds.

May 2010 may not be so kind.

The week starts with news that Greece reached a $147 billion bailout agreement with the IMF Sunday. This is a plus for the Eurozone and mortgage market negative. Rates should rise on the bailout.

Also on Monday, the government releases Personal Consumptions and Expenditures data. 

PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and it's expected to show an annual read of 1.3 percent. Anything higher and rates should rise.

Then, for the rest of the week, employment data takes center stage.

• Wednesday : ADP releases its private sector employment data
• Thursday : The government releases initial jobless claims
• Friday : The government releases April's job report

Jobs are key to the U.S. economic recovery, tied to consumer spending, consumer confidence, and mortgage delinquencies.  If job growth is better than expected, mortgage rates should rise.  If job growth is worse, rates should fall.

There's no "best day" to lock this week so keep an eye on the market.  However, if rates in Wisconsin rise as quickly in May as they fell in April, you won't have much time to act.

The Headlines Were Overly Rosy On February's Case-Shiller Index

Earlier this week, Standard & Poors released its February Case-Shiller Index, a home price tracker for select metropolitan areas. 

Overwhelmingly, home values fell in the 20 markets tracked by the Case-Shiller. Only San Diego showed a modest increase.  The other 19 markets averaged a 1.23 percent decline between January and February.

However, that's not the story you read in the most papers. Instead, headlines read that home values were up in the United States, citing annualized data.

Unfortunately for active home buyers and sellers, year-over-year data isn't all that helpful when making a real estate decisions. It's the month-to-month data that matters. Month-to-month changes in home prices are what defines a housing market. Month-to-month is what sets the tone for contracts and negotiations on a purchase.

The rosier, annualized data published this past week just doesn't capture the reality of what was the February 2010 market.  And even then, the data is somewhat useless because it's from February and May will be upon us next week.

Case-Shiller is on a 2-month lag -- hardly reflective of the "right now" of real estate in Minneapolis.

When you're looking for real estate data that actionable, consider using sources that are more "real-time". A real estate agent may be the right place to start.  Because for all the data that Case-Shiller and the other housing indices collect, it can never be as relevant to your individual needs as a well-executed, timely market analysis.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (April 28, 2010 Edition)

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within in its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that, since March, the U.S. economy "has continued to strengthen" and that the jobs markets "is beginning to improve".  This is a step up from the last meeting after which the Fed said jobs were "stabilizing". 

It also reiterated that business spending "has risen significantly".

Today's statement marks the 7th straight press release in which the Fed shows optimism for the U.S. economy. Furthermore, the Fed has now closed all but one of the programs it created to support markets during last year's financial crisis.

Threats remain to growth, however. The Fed fingered a few:

1. Employers are reluctant to hire new workers
2. High unemployment threatens consumer spending
3. Consumer credit (still) remains tight

Also in its statement, the Fed re-acknowledged its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period".  This was expected.

Overall, the statement's tone was positive and the Fed noted that inflation is within tolerance. 

Mortgage market reaction has been muted thus far. Mortgage rates in Maple Grove are unchanged post-FOMC.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a 2-day affair, June 22-23, 2010.  The 55-day span between meetings will be the FOMC's longest of 2010.